Tuesday 18 February 2014

Petone Stadium and the Water Cooler Test

This week has seen the most exciting announcement since the launch of the club in 2007.  The club and the Hutt City council are discussing a proposal that would see the Wellington Phoenix moving to a new purpose built rectangular stadium in Petone as soon as 2017.

So what do we know?  Financial information on the Phoenix is thin on the ground, but it's clear that the club still loses money and the bulk of that relates to home matches.  Simply put, the current model requires the owners to contribute up to $1 million per season to continue playing home games in Wellington.  Set against the owners' firm line that the club needs to eventually pay for itself, those losses are unsustainable and without improvement there will come a time when some of those currently involved consider walking away.

If average home crowds were increased to between 9000 and 10,000 that loss would be eliminated but that gap has proven stubborn and the current facilities at the stadium do seem to play some part.

Wellingtonians used to a high standard of food and drink, who enjoy craft beers and a cafe culture, unsurprisingly object to paying high prices for food, drink and facilities which frankly are out of step with the times.  Many people simply aren't prepared to spend $100 for football tickets, warm beers and plastic burgers no matter how good the football on display is.

Ticket pricing doesn't reflect the decision making of your average punter.  A single ticket purchased on the day of the game can be close to double the season ticket price.  But in a city where people's decision to attend can be driven hugely by the weather on the day, why discourage walk up crowds?  Sure, cheaper pre-sales are supposed to encourage punters to buy tickets earlier in the week but with so many free seats available there really isn't the incentive to commit to attending on a Tuesday if you're only going to turn up if the weather is great.  You're far more likely just to decide not to go.

There is also a multiplier effect with football crowds at the stadium.  Below about 7000 the crowd is overwhelmed by the size of the venue.  Exceed 9000 and the place starts to come alive.  But it's been a struggle for 2 1/2 years to get those numbers on a regular basis.  Put 9000 people in a small rectangular stadium and you will have the best sporting atmosphere in New Zealand bar none.

There is a superficially strong case for a long term investment by Welnix in a new stadium to ensure the team remains viable and playing matches in Wellington.  If you consider that a new stadium may require a $20 million investment, but playing at a new venue would have the team breaking even, you have a stadium that pays for itself over 20 years.  Of course the financial situation is far more complicated than that and this ignores completely basic financial costs like servicing the debt associated with building the venue.  But there is no doubt that a venue where the club starts to generate money from hosting matches makes the club a far more sustainable prospect for continued investment.

I've always felt that there is only one way to predict Phoenix crowds and that's by using what I call the "water cooler" test - are people at work discussing the club around the fictional water cooler.  People go to games because they enjoy football but they also go to games to be part of that conversation - they want to be part of something that everyone else is talking about.  During the Terry years, that wasn't hard to achieve.
The gloss started to come off once the "water cooler" discussions turned to how Terry was ripping off half of Wellington.  Since Welnix took over the club has struggled to capture the limelight in the same way, an austerity atmosphere focussing on a sustainable business, the grinding mediocrity of late era Herbert and the resulting poor crowds have stripped some of the perceived glamour from the side.  Your average punter simply doesn't want to be associated with the Phoenix brand in 2014.

A new stadium changes everything (and Smithy has covered what watching at a new stadium might be like here).  That excitement factor, the potential of playing in front of full houses with an atmosphere to match, the feeling that this is a club going somewhere - all of these change the entire perception of the future of the Phoenix.  In a stroke you remove any impression that the Phoenix are another failing New Zealand football franchise drifting towards collapse (not a view I share of course but one which is starting to be expressed in some quarters).

This is why as fans we have to support the Petone option.  This is why as fans we have to get behind Gareth and Welnix.  And this is why as fans we have to do everything we can to make this happen.


Long time no posts

Been a bit quiet on the posting front, my son has recently ruled out sleeping at night at the same time as my day job got busy.  And mostly I've enjoyed Ernie's men carving up the league.  More to come shortly though so watch this space.

Wednesday 4 December 2013

Phoenix 0 : West Sydney 0 and our Misfiring Attack

After another scoreless draw on Sunday it's becoming clear that in order to make an impact in the A-League this season the Phoenix will have to improve in attack.

The Phoenix were not a free scoring side prior to this season - the last in match in which they scored more than twice was back in December 2012; Fenton and Brockie (2) grabbing goals in a 3 - 2 win over the Heart (perhaps not coincidentally this was the last time the Phoenix featured in the top 6).  Since then, in the remaining 14 matches of '12/'13 we scored 13 times and this year just 6 in 7, meaning we're averaging less than a goal a game over roughly the past 12 month period.



In that same period of season '12/'13 we conceded a staggering 32 goals and this year another 9 for a goal difference of minus 22 in that 21 game period.  As discussed in my last piece, Ernie has done a pretty impressive job improving the defence but despite a change in style, this side still looks extremely goal shy.     I've looked at some of the reasons why below.

Steyn Huysegems

The big, bald Belgian was pitched as the best credentialed foreigner to play in New Zealand, but he's been largely disappointing struggling to score goals, or really do very much at all.  Huysegems has a decent touch and he's one of the few players who can receive the ball back to goal and retain possession.  But that's not allied with any sort of attacking instinct.  He's rarely able to manufacture chances, has barely mustered a shot from outside the box and has struggled consistently to get into attacking situations - this is born out by a meagre tally of just 24 attempts on goal in his 24 games.  This compares poorly when you consider Brockie has 78 in the same number of matches and it's no coincidence Brockie has scored 16 times while our Flemish friend has just 6.

While he does recycle the ball and maintain possession, he's just not been been able to bring others into play in attacking situations.  When the focal point of your attack lacks penetration it's difficult to get the side going in an attacking sense.

There's also an issue with his physicality (and this is something I think is a major issue with the side in general). While the league is improving in this sense, A-League defenders get away with a lot and in general the most successful strikers are able to cope with physical demands of the game.  Huysegems is far too easily dominated by strong defenders, he rarely wins balls in the air and he doesn't have the pace to make the most of his close control.  While he's a tidy player who could do a job in a side where he's not relied on to score goals or create chances, it's pretty clear why he's ended up plying his trade in NZ - another classic, underwhelming, Ricki Herbert signing.

Lack of a Physical Presence and Option Taking

One of the most underrated parts of Paul Ifill's game is his strength.  At the top of his game Ifill really was the complete package, he'd beat a man one on one because he was quicker, trickier but also stronger.  You can still see it in his game today - even though his pace is largely gone he still beats defenders by holding them off and when he's going past you players bounce off him.  Allied with Chris Greenacre the Phoenix attack was always tough to play against.  Right now the Phoenix attack looks lightweight and in a league where defenders tend to be big and physical, and where our passing game looks imprecise, that's a major problem. These two charts from the weekend demonstrate some of the problems:



This is a chart of our long passes from the weekend - we completed just 12 out of 44 long passes.  We struggle to retain possession in physical situations.



Here's a chart of our crosses - if you exclude the blue lines which were all from corners - we didn't complete a single cross.  The striking thing is that the crosses are coming from deep positions close to the by - line, i.e. excellent positions, where we should be able to create shooting chances through cut backs.

Part of the problem seems to be that we're not dominant inside the box without Ifill's physicality (although he nearly won the game in the last minute with a great near post run) and Huysegems lack of predatory instinct.   Partly too it's down to poor option taking from the wide player.  Fenton especially, got into some promising positions but didn't take the right options on several occasions.

3 Man Midfield

Another chance goes begging
In the majority of matches this year Merrick has lined up with three predominantly defensive players in central midfield (3 out of Riera, Muscat, Hicks and Lia) and just 3 nominally attacking players (3 of Huysegems, Brockie, Hernandez, Cunningham and Ifill).  This has a knock on affect in an attacking sense as it means more often than not the 3 Phoenix attackers are outnumbered.  This puts pressure on the attacking players to go wide in search of space but leaves too few number inside the box when no-one is breaking from midfield - perhaps another part of the reason for the poor crossing chart above.

When those midfield three do join in the attack their finishing is inevitably not up to scratch - both Hicks and Lia have missed excellent chances this year and can't be relied upon for goals.  Another issue is that none of the midfield players is capable of shooting accurately from distance.  This means opposition defences can sit deep (as they don't need to push up to close down our midfield), crowd the box with defenders and make it more difficult to find space to get shots away.

The best solution within the current set-up will be to get Fenton and Caira more involved in the attack.  The switch to right back seemed harsh on a young player just starting his professional career, but Sunday was the first time it looked like Fenton could make a real go of the position.  If he is involved in the attack that gives us an outlet - but he needs to improve his option taking to turn those opportunities into goals.  Before his week off, Caira had his best attacking game against Sydney and he seems to be finding his feet in the position.


Merrick continues to receive the benefit of the doubt from fans and media but there's no doubt that he needs a win to kick start the season.  Because the longer you play well without winning, questions will be asked as to whether you are in fact playing well.

Tuesday 29 October 2013

Some thoughts from Wellington Phoenix 0 : Newcastle Jets 0

Don't concede, don't lose

The match in Napier on Sunday was a typical early season fixture between two sides who looked well under done in attack.  Newcastle set out to occupy the Phoenix's passing channels and were mostly successful in preventing Carlos Hernandez settling on the ball in the attacking third.  Paul Ifill was also closed down quickly meaning the Phoenix's two most creative players had very little impact on the match.

But what has been overlooked is the defensive turnaround quietly orchestrated by Ernie Merrick from a team that conceded 49 goals in 27 games last year at an average of 1.8 per match.  Last season, when the Phoenix kept only 4 clean sheets, the team would almost certainly have lost that match when they had not scored.

Starting the match with 3 of Ricki Herbert's back 4 for the second week in a row, only substituting the inexperienced Reece Caira for Tony Lochhead, you would not have believed this was a side capable of shipping terrible goals at an alarming rate during last year's campaign.  Last year quality A-League defenders Sigmund and Durante looked at times like park footballers, both making several poor individual errors. Under Merrick the same combination has looked organised and generally composed.

Sigmund has generally played with greater discipline tactically while still imposing himself physically and seems to have restrained his urge to push out from the back trying to win the ball further up the pitch.  Caira looks solid enough and although Bertos's positioning is at times suspect, he's rarely been caught the wrong side of his man which was a problem last year.

If the Phoenix are to make the top 6 this year both attack and defence need to improve - but by completing the first three 90 minute outings of the season while only conceding three goals, perhaps there are still positives to be taken from a fairly mind numbing afternoon's football.

Reorganising mid-match has its limitations

Ernie Merrick was widely praised for his removal of Steyn Huysegems and reorganisation of the Phoenix midfield after 30 minutes last week against West Sydney.  This week again he went to his bench early to make another tactical reorganisation removing Paul Ifill at half time to bring on Albert Riera.  Riera, Lia and Muscat were all nominally defensive midfielders, although Lia seemed to have the most licence to push forward to support the attack.  Riera had a good 45 minutes, economical in possession he seemed the most comfortable of the three with the ball at his feet misplacing only three passes during the half.  With an extra body in midfield the Phoenix generally reduced the attacking threat from Newcastle and looked less open defensively.

But the removal of Ifill had a marked effect on the Phoenix attacking play.  Perhaps as a result of the Belgian's furious reaction to his substitution against West Sydney, Merrick left the Brockie/Huysegems/Hernandez axis in place and it plainly didn't work leaving the attack unbalanced.  All three prefer to operate centrally so the formation lacked width and Brockie especially seemed unable to get into the game.  With no wide player stretching the play the midfield was congested and the game ended up a scrappy affair.  Without Ifill's ability to create something out of nothing, and Hernandez targeted by Ben Kantarovski,  Brockie and Huysegems resembled less a partnership and more a new couple awkwardly fumbling after a first date.

What this does show is the limitations of in-game management.  Making pro-active changes during a match is an important part of coaching but it is far preferable to get your initial team selection right and stick with it.  It would not be a surprise to see one of the Phoenix's two strikers benched next week and a third central midfielder added from the start but either way Ernie needs to get comfortable with his initial team selection.

Home and away

The crowd of 9020 in Napier was probably just enough to see the Phoenix return next year, but won't convince the sceptics that the entire exercise has little to recommend it considering that as many of a third of that number were from out of town and in the Hawkes Bay for the local under 19 tournament.  Taking a match away from home is a significant commitment for the club, players and fans who all need to invest time and effort shifting the entire operation to another city.  The novelty factor of the Wellington Phoenix playing live outside Wellington does seem to be wearing off.

The four figure crowd in Napier followed last season where a "home" match in Dunedin drew an embarrassing 3,060 (vs 4628 in the 2011 fixture) and the match against Perth at Eden Park an acceptable 11,600 (but fairly disappointing vs the 20,078 which watched the game against Adelaide in 2011).  It's hard to see what the Phoenix get out the the exercise (aside from the match outgoings being underwritten by a council or a promoter).  As a proportion of total income merchandise must sit fairly low down the list and building the Phoenix "brand" seems a particularly nebulous reason to take matches on the road.

The answer then, must be that matches at Westpac Stadium are generally still costing money to put on while crowds remain under the season average of roughly 9000.

Whether taking games on the road is seen as a genuine long term strategy, or is being used as a bargaining chip to negotiate more favourable terms from Westpac Stadium management isn't clear - it would certainly make more sense if the second were true.  But it does seem to indicate short term thinking when it leads to situations like the side not playing in Wellington between 13 October and 9 December and the loyal fans that the Phoenix are happy to rely upon are the ultimate losers.

Passionate fans want to watch their team play, and only a portion of them are able to make a trip outside Wellington.  Too long between matches and you begin to lose that bond which has formed the bed rock of Phoenix support (and which the club are more than happy to trade upon).  That's something Phoenix management should mess with at their peril.  Perhaps more time needs to be spent finding out why crowds in Wellington have dropped away and less time spent marketing one off games out of town.

Monday 21 October 2013

Some thoughts on West Sydney 1 : Wellington Phoenix 1

Getting the best out of Jeremy Brockie

Jeremy Brockie had a mixed game on Saturday - he struggled early from wide on the right taking several poor options and drifted in and out of the game after moving into the centre following Steyn Huysegems' substitution when Merrick added to the midfield.  But he got the goal applying a tremendous finish after a piece of Ifill trickery to earn the Phoenix a deserved point in Sydney.

Brockie has always been most effective in a central role; he was inconsistent at Newcastle while used as a winger and he's never scored for the All Whites in 35 appearances where he's plugged gaps out wide, in midfield and even at wing-back.
Gooooooooooalazo

Brockie is often criticised for a lack of work rate but  that doesn't tell the whole story - when the Phoenix have possession in midfield his movement tends to be away from the ball, either to make a run off the shoulder of the last defender for the ball released quickly or looking for space away from the play to be in position to finish off an attacking movement.  He rarely does the dirty work running the channels or holding the ball up in the way that Chris Greenacre specialised.  In that respect he can appear "supply dependent", a player who needs others to bring him into the game in order to be effective.

What he does bring however is the ability to lose his man and create space - in the first half he ghosted on to a lovely pass from Jason Hicks which lead to a shot off target and his run in between the central defenders for the goal demonstrated his ability to find space in the penalty box in a way few A-League strikers can.

It's clear he needs to start centrally to be most effective.  If he can add more variety to his movement and become a more rounded striker there is no doubt though that when matched with his natural goal scoring instinct he could develop into one of the best players in the league.

Bertos may have a Phoenix future - but not as an attacker

When Ernie Merrick announced that Leo Bertos wouldn't be used at right back because he was wanted as an attacking player and then barely used him in pre-season, this looked like the beginning of the end for Bertos' Phoenix career.  But perhaps there's still more to come from Bertos - as a defender.

Leo Bertos

Bertos had a solid if unspectacular game at right back after backing up from the All Whites match against Trinidad and Tobago where he played as a wing-back.  He dealt well with Mark Bridge and generally acquitted himself well as part of a back four that kept Wanderers quiet in the second half.  There are times when he seems to be moving in the opposite direction to the rest of the back four but generally he seemed to position himself well.

Although he didn't contribute a great deal in an attacking sense he provided support in the final third and won several corners pushing forward.  At the same time he showed why as an attacking player he's unlikely to see much time this year.  Compared to Ifill, who makes up for a lack of pace with skill and movement, he looked unlikely to beat his man one-on-one.  Bertos always relied on skipping past defenders on the outside to deliver crosses, and without pace he does look a little one dimensional.

If he retains his place in defence for the match in Napier and performs well it could mean Louis Fenton struggles to break into the side after injury.

When is a scapegoat not a scapegoat - when he's Vince Lia

After two rounds of the A-League, one player has been the focus for most criticism from Phoenix fans - Vince Lia.  It doesn't help that Lia was expected to be replaced in the off season (and the long running search for a defensive midfielder indicates that Merrick did intend to line up without him in 2013).  Two matches where he has been inconsistent in possession has seen a rising tide of invective directed towards Lia online and in a backlash against the backlash it seems Lia is now being defended as merely the latest Yellow Fever "designated scapegoat" after an improved showing in 70 minutes on Sunday after a frankly shocking first 20.
Sunday's mixed bag

But just because Lia has become the designated scape-goat (and it does seem he has) does not mean he's not deserving of criticism.

The frustration with Lia is that he's clearly capable of doing some of the things an A-League midfielder should be able to do, some of the time. The problem is that his mistakes tend to lead to chances and goals.  Lia can pass the ball but at times he gives it away with a casualness which suggests he doesn't understand that under Merrick, his position is possibly the most important on the pitch.  The problem for Lia is that when faced with a high press like that from Wanderers on Sunday he will inevitably turn over the ball inside his own half two or three times a game.  That led to several chances, including a late shot from Brendan Santalab that rattled the post with 10 minutes to go and would have seen the Phoenix almost certainly lose a hard fought point.  For all his defensive quality, and he hassled and harried without fouling on Sunday which was admirable, he still lacks the calmness when playing under pressure that this team needs to thrive.

All this might be acceptable if Lia's all round game meant he was creating chances at the other end or was a creative outlet.  But when his role is so simple, and his passing fairly mechanical, he can't continue making such basic errors and retain his place in the team.

Getting points in Australia - a simple formula

The Phoenix completed more passes than Wanderers attempted on Sunday which must have been a first in an away match for the club.  Unlike under Herbert when possession seemed an after thought to desperate defence, with a fair share of the ball Phoenix were able to withstand pressure by controlling the tempo of the match.  While the attack at times lacked precision this was to be expected when Merrick was forced into an early tactical switch, and has been unable to field his first choice starting lineup in pre-season.  This was a mature display that bodes well for the rest of the season and suggest future away matches might not be the grim proposition of previous seasons.

Monday 14 October 2013

What New Zealand Football needs from its next manager

When the final whistle blows in Wellington on 20 November 2013 two things will almost certainly have happened.  Mexico will have qualified for the 2014 FIFA World Cup and Ricki Herbert's reign as All Whites manager will be over.  Assessment of his tenure can wait until such a conclusion, but planning for the future needs to start now.  The task will fall to the discredited New Zealand Football board, in all likelihood under the influence of Frank Van Hattum and Fred de Jong, to appoint a replacement.  What then for the role beyond 2013 - how do we manage the task of rebuilding a diminished side when the memories and money generated by World Cup qualification in 2010 have disappeared?
Ricki Herbert; sad

This modern All Whites team are almost entirely a Herbert creation, but the current state of the national side reflect the diminishing returns his one note coaching style has generated.  For both club and country Herbert succeeded in building a were raised.  His continuation with the 3-4-3 system for the All Whites, at times necessitating some bizarre positional selections has at times veered towards deliberate provocation - a rejoinder to critics.  This is the man who conquered Bahrain, never forget - a symbolic "show me your medals".  But letting the system govern the players has resulted in complete confusion - including it seems in Herbert, the brutalist 3-4-3 was a particular response to the strengths of the available players and a concentration of talent amongst central defenders and physical strikers, not a coherent approach replicable with another set of players.

Tactically, the first job for the new man will be to revise that style of play.  New Zealand does have a more complete collection of attacking players than at any time since the 1980s - McGlinchey, Rojas, Barbarouses, Wood, Henderson, Brockie and Smeltz could all conceivably be starting for their clubs and scoring goals this season.  But New Zealand sides will always suffer in an area of the pitch, currently fullback and defensive midfield - mean the job of the manager will require

This is not a job for idealists or ideologues looking to impose a pre-conceived tactical framework, dreams of "combination play" and midfield rotation must be subservient to an element of pragmatism.  
Marco Rojas; skillz 

The All Whites are in a strange situation, we start almost every international fixture as underdog and can expect to spend much of every match we play without the ball, other than in Oceania where we're strong favourites and must dominate the play. The requirement for a style of play flexible enough to adapt to either scenario is a challenge but has to be developed.  Watching New Zealand out-passed by New Caledonia in Dunedin, able only to achieve an unsatisfying victory through an aerial blitz, was a kind of humiliation.

The end of this campaign should bring a major turnover in the playing group.  While Herbert used more than 65 players in his last 60 matches in charge, he was in many respects an anti- reactionist .  The majority of competitive fixtures included a core group of whom Leo Bertos, Tony Lochhead, Chris Killen, Ivan Vicelic, Ben Sigmund and Rory Fallon are all nearing the end of their contributions.  Expect a spate of retirements or if this doesn't eventuate, the swift ending of some long careers.
Rory Fallon; elbows

To my mind, the coach of the Senior Men should also take this side to the Olympics, primarily because of the likely cross-over between the two. Storm Roux, Bill Tuiloma, Louis Fenton, Tyler Boyd, Alex Rufer, Matthew Ridenton, Luke Adams, Harry Edge, Ryan Thomas, Tim Payne and Cameron Howison are all eligible for Rio in 2016, at professional clubs and should figure for the All Whites at some stage before 2018.  ASB Premiership players should be selected when absolutely necessary - our international prospects will only improve when all of our squad are making regular appearances in professional football.

Qualification for future World Cups will continue to prove extremely difficult, Bahrain was an outlier - New Zealand's World Cup appearances will be so infrequent that coaching performance should not be measured in World Cup cycles.  Herbert convinced us that only one result counted, and that was the intercontinental playoff.  He engineered a free pass for results in other matches - too late it seems we realised that the Honiara debacle indicated a downward trajectory that reflected his lack of new ideas.  We need to overthrow the tyranny of low expectations which meant we accepted struggling through Oceania qualification. Performance levels need to be maintained in each of the major international tests - OFC Nations Cup, Oceania World Cup Qualifiers, Olympic Games and the Confederations Cup - and if they're not we'll never qualify for the World Cup anyway.

The kiwi football fan is a realist - we know our place in the football world (even if we allow ourselves dreams of glory from time to time).  Whomever takes on the mantle of New Zealand football manager will not have unachievable expectations - all he needs to do is to develop a talented group of players into a football team we can be proud of.

Herbert's greatest achievement was gaining credibility, for himself as a coach and New Zealand as an international team.  For New Zealand Football appointing a replacement to restore credibility to a hollowed out institution may be an equally difficult task.

Thursday 10 October 2013

Season Preview - Ernie Merrick's magnificent men

Let's get one thing straight - Wellington Phoenix will be a better side under Ernie Merrick than under Ricki Herbert.  No more hoof ball, no more Tony Lochhead and thankfully, a new approach to away matches where a comfortable loss won't be good enough.

2102/13 was a horror year for the club which threatened to de-rail the steady rebuilding under Welnix.  For both supporters and players alike a general malaise took hold mid-season and Herbert's inevitable departure, and the wooden spoon, book-ended a demoralising season conclusion where the tedium of an interminable off-season couldn't come quickly enough.



"Sir Ricki's" culpability continues to be debated - he remarkably still retains the loyalty of a rump of supporters - but there is no doubt that he departed leaving a demoralised squad peppered with players for whom continuing a career in professional football must be the most pleasant of surprises. That's not to say that Merrick's job is an impossible one, but it does temper expectations for a season where the Phoenix are rebuilding a squad almost from scratch.

Ernie Merrick's appointment as manager was warmly received in New Zealand and that positivity has been enhanced by his upbeat media persona and bullishness in respect of the local talent available to him, both inside and outside the squad.

Concerns raised by an Australian media in his ability to coach in a league he last won in 2009, in thrall to a new generation of Australian coaches, seem unfounded. Improvement in the overall level of the A-League has been significantly overstated; although there is no doubt that at the top end the influence of Ange Postecoglu at Brisbane and now Victory and Tony Popovic at Western Sydney has raised standards, the lower reaches of the table still contain some genuinely awful football sides (few worse than last year's Phoenix side).



Nevertheless, the squad assembled by Merrick to date seems to lack both the experience, but more importantly the quality, to aim much higher than 5th or 6th spot.  He's taken a significant risk relying on his ability to get more out of the existing squad considering the bulk of players recruited will be in their début season of professional football.  Consistency not talent is the question mark over a group of young players who have all turned in impressive displays at different times during pre-season.  Each will need to be carefully managed.

Under Herbert, Tyler Boyd and Louis Fenton were introduced early,  shouldered more pressure than was ideal and at times seemed to be selected for reasons beyond their on-field performances - both have huge futures and should benefit from Merrick's history in youth coaching.

Focussing on young players may be the only way that a club unwilling to spend beyond the salary cap can hope to compete in the medium term and Chris Wood, Marco Rojas, Kosta Barbarouses and Cameron Howieson show that the raw material is there within New Zealand.  The club is in the early stages of managing players beginning their careers and whether the current coaching structures allow that talent to develop effectively remains to be seen.

A defence that conceded 49 goals must be improved but while both fullbacks and the goal keeper will be new faces, if anything the defence looks weaker than last year so long as Manny Muscat continues in midfield.  Both Sigmund and Andrew Durante escaped criticism in 2012 despite regular lapses of concentration but will be under pressure to justify overly generous contract extensions that see both players tied to the club until 2014/2015.



Sigmund especially, reported to have struggled for motivation under Herbert, needs to channel his undoubtedly impressive physical approach into more disciplined displays.  There will be an acceptance that the fullbacks, Fenton and Caira, will make mistakes defensively but both must mitigate that by contributing in the attacking third.

Midfield continues to be a problem.  Vince Lia was an acceptable midfield starter for a new club in 2008, he just held his own in a team that by-passed midfield but does not have the technique for a team which aims to play on the ground quickly through midfield.  His contract extension in 2012 was inexplicable.

Manny Muscat has limitations with the ball but his defensive tenacity can be extremely effective when partnered by a more creative option  - a deep lying playmaker was assumed to be arriving in the off season and it remains to be seen whether the late acquisition of the Spaniard Albert Riera from Auckland City will fulfil that role.

A slightly strange signing, Riera is unlikely to push for a starting spot immediately coming from the amateur game, while as an import he prevents recruitment of a further starting midfielder which it was assumed the club was still searching for.  Alex Rufer is the wild card - although only 17 his pre-season performances suggest he may get some time off the bench this year.

History show that if you score more goals than you concede, you will make the top 6.  Undoubtedly Merrick has focussed the bulk of his available budget on attacking players - Kenny Cunningham will be needed to stretch the play and create space for the major off-season recruit, Carlos Hernandez, to operate in.  Concerns about fitness seem unjustified - even his his pomp with Victory Hernandez never relied on pace and his long range shooting and set piece ability should improve the sides' potency from outside the box - while also introducing far more variety into the Phoenix attack.



Ultimately however, it's the old warhorse Paul Ifill who will be relied upon for the game breaking pass, cross and goals.  The one player in Wellington consistently worth paying money to see, Ifill's form fluctuated last season while he more than almost any other seemed unable to motivate himself towards the end of the Herbert reign.  Guaranteed goals if he stays fit, much will depend on the number of matches he's able to play.

But even in the strongest area of the pitch questions still remain unanswered.  Jeremy Brockie, last year's golden boot, doesn't fit naturally into Merrick's 4-3-3 - neither entirely comfortable with his back to goal or operating from wide areas, and won't be guaranteed to start.  Leo Bertos, another strangely handed a contract extension soon before Merrick's arrival, seems destined to spend time as a highly paid substitute after limited time and impact in pre-season.  And Huysegems was prolific early on against weak opposition but has been well handled but more experienced defences - as well as New Zealand A and the "amateurs" of Auckland City.

This season feels like only the start of something very new in Wellington and with the squad assembled few, if any will be predicting much more than a top half finish at best.  Merrick has focussed on solving problems in the side with his ability as a coach, aiming for improvement from the current squad rather than making wholesale changes through recruitment.  But seeing a squad filled with young players, many of whom are Kiwis, feels like the beginning of a new era for the Wellington Phoenix.

Prediction: Head - 8th; Heart 5th