This week has seen the most exciting announcement since the launch of the club in 2007. The club and the Hutt City council are discussing a proposal that would see the Wellington Phoenix moving to a new purpose built rectangular stadium in Petone as soon as 2017.
So what do we know? Financial information on the Phoenix is thin on the ground, but it's clear that the club still loses money and the bulk of that relates to home matches. Simply put, the current model requires the owners to contribute up to $1 million per season to continue playing home games in Wellington. Set against the owners' firm line that the club needs to eventually pay for itself, those losses are unsustainable and without improvement there will come a time when some of those currently involved consider walking away.
If average home crowds were increased to between 9000 and 10,000 that loss would be eliminated but that gap has proven stubborn and the current facilities at the stadium do seem to play some part.
Wellingtonians used to a high standard of food and drink, who enjoy craft beers and a cafe culture, unsurprisingly object to paying high prices for food, drink and facilities which frankly are out of step with the times. Many people simply aren't prepared to spend $100 for football tickets, warm beers and plastic burgers no matter how good the football on display is.
Ticket pricing doesn't reflect the decision making of your average punter. A single ticket purchased on the day of the game can be close to double the season ticket price. But in a city where people's decision to attend can be driven hugely by the weather on the day, why discourage walk up crowds? Sure, cheaper pre-sales are supposed to encourage punters to buy tickets earlier in the week but with so many free seats available there really isn't the incentive to commit to attending on a Tuesday if you're only going to turn up if the weather is great. You're far more likely just to decide not to go.
There is also a multiplier effect with football crowds at the stadium. Below about 7000 the crowd is overwhelmed by the size of the venue. Exceed 9000 and the place starts to come alive. But it's been a struggle for 2 1/2 years to get those numbers on a regular basis. Put 9000 people in a small rectangular stadium and you will have the best sporting atmosphere in New Zealand bar none.
There is a superficially strong case for a long term investment by Welnix in a new stadium to ensure the team remains viable and playing matches in Wellington. If you consider that a new stadium may require a $20 million investment, but playing at a new venue would have the team breaking even, you have a stadium that pays for itself over 20 years. Of course the financial situation is far more complicated than that and this ignores completely basic financial costs like servicing the debt associated with building the venue. But there is no doubt that a venue where the club starts to generate money from hosting matches makes the club a far more sustainable prospect for continued investment.
I've always felt that there is only one way to predict Phoenix crowds and that's by using what I call the "water cooler" test - are people at work discussing the club around the fictional water cooler. People go to games because they enjoy football but they also go to games to be part of that conversation - they want to be part of something that everyone else is talking about. During the Terry years, that wasn't hard to achieve.
The gloss started to come off once the "water cooler" discussions turned to how Terry was ripping off half of Wellington. Since Welnix took over the club has struggled to capture the limelight in the same way, an austerity atmosphere focussing on a sustainable business, the grinding mediocrity of late era Herbert and the resulting poor crowds have stripped some of the perceived glamour from the side. Your average punter simply doesn't want to be associated with the Phoenix brand in 2014.
A new stadium changes everything (and Smithy has covered what watching at a new stadium might be like here). That excitement factor, the potential of playing in front of full houses with an atmosphere to match, the feeling that this is a club going somewhere - all of these change the entire perception of the future of the Phoenix. In a stroke you remove any impression that the Phoenix are another failing New Zealand football franchise drifting towards collapse (not a view I share of course but one which is starting to be expressed in some quarters).
This is why as fans we have to support the Petone option. This is why as fans we have to get behind Gareth and Welnix. And this is why as fans we have to do everything we can to make this happen.
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